Frontmezzjunkies reports: Oscars 2026 Preview: Early Predictions, Frontrunners, and What to Watch

By Ross

With the 98th Academy Awards fast approaching in March 2026, awards season is officially in full swing, and the Oscars conversation is heating up. From critics’ prizes to SAG nominations and Golden Globes results, a handful of films are emerging as serious contenders across major categories. While nothing is official until the nominations are announced, industry buzz, recent awards results, and prediction data give us a clear early picture of who and what might dominate Oscar night.

Best Picture: The Leaders and Their Rivals

At the top of most Oscars prediction boards is Paul Thomas Anderson’s sprawling political satire One Battle After Another (the next film on my to-watch list), which has already scored a historic number of nominations at the SAG-Actor Awards and has strong momentum across guilds. It’s widely viewed as a frontrunner not just for Best Picture but also Best Director and multiple acting nominations.

Close behind are Sinners and Hamnet. The former, a genre-bending period drama with standout work from Michael B. Jordan, has picked up critical support and box office strength, positioning it as a dark horse that could punch above its weight. Hamnet, bolstered by a Best Actress Globe win for Jessie Buckley, has emerged as a top contender in the drama categories and could pose a challenge for Best Picture and Best Actress.

Other films in the Oscar conversation include Marty Supreme, praised for Timothée Chalamet’s performance, Sentimental Value, Frankenstein, and Bugonia. Prediction pools and expert odds indicate all of these titles could earn nominations — and some may even surprise with wins in key categories.

Best Acting Battles: Heavyweights and Breakouts

The Best Actor field is shaping up to be exceptionally competitive. Timothée Chalamet is widely pegged as a frontrunner for his work in Marty Supreme, with strong odds in prediction markets. Leonardo DiCaprio, leading One Battle After Another, brings both star power and critical admiration, making him a perennial threat. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) and Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) are also in the conversation, thanks to recent performance awards and buzz.

On the Best Actress side, Jessie Buckley’s performance in Hamnet currently sits at the head of most prediction boards and betting markets, with odds that suggest a strong chance of her taking home the Oscar. Rose Byrne and Renate Reinsve are also generating buzz in what promises to be a wide-open category.

Supporting Categories and Directors to Watch

Supporting Actor appears poised to spotlight the likes of Benicio Del Toro and Paul Mescal, among others, with both performance buzz and ensemble strength behind them. In the Supporting Actress category, Teyana Taylor and Amy Madigan are generating notable attention as potential nominees.

Directing predictions currently favor Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another, with Ryan Coogler (Sinners) and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) also firmly in the mix. Each offers a distinct vision, and this lineup could reflect the Academy’s growing recognition of bold filmmaking across genre and style.

Why This Season Feels Different

What’s notable about the 2026 Oscar season is how diverse the field feels. Heavyweights like One Battle After Another and Hamnet sit alongside genre-y films and international contenders. Early awards season results (like the SAG nominations and Golden Globes wins) have shown that voters are paying attention to both mainstream arthouse fare and films that blend more cinematic styles.

While Oscar predictions are always speculative this far ahead, the mix of critical acclaim, performance buzz, and industry awards momentum paints a landscape rich with possibilities. Whether you’re rooting for established favorites or hoping for a surprise upset, this year’s Oscars season promises plenty to watch, debate, and enjoy.