Frontmezzjunkies reports: Playing the Prediction Guessing Game Before Oscar Night

By Ross

When the nominations for the 98th Academy Awards were announced earlier this year, I confessed something right away: I hadn’t seen nearly enough of the nominated films yet. January belonged to theatre seats rather than cinema seats, and February, well, the Colombian sun took over my world. My viewing list was still very much a work in progress. Now, a day before the ceremony, that confession remains mostly true. I’ve caught up with some contenders: “Hamnet“, “One Battle After Another“, and “Marty Supreme” among them, but Oscar season always arrives with more films than time, and the final stretch before the ceremony often becomes less about certainty and more about instinct.

Still, that’s part of the fun. Predictions, after all, are rarely about perfect knowledge. They’re a mixture of admiration, industry momentum, historical patterns, and a healthy amount of guesswork. As I wrote when the nominations were first announced, my heart remains firmly with “Hamnet“, a film whose quiet devastation and theatrical soul still linger long after the credits roll. If the Academy shares even a fraction of that affection, I would be delighted—especially for Jessie Buckley’s luminous performance, which remains my personal pick for Best Actress.

Elsewhere, the conversation feels a little more like reading the room. “One Battle After Another” still strikes me as the film with the strongest Best Picture trajectory, although “Sinners” is making waves upon waves. Timothée Chalamet’s charismatic turn in “Marty Supreme” continues to feel like the kind of performance the Academy historically embraces (and he didn’t say those ridiculous remarks about ballet and opera until after the ballets were sent in). But Oscar night is nothing if not unpredictable. Surprises happen. Momentum shifts. And every year, at least one envelope sends the entire room into collective disbelief. This year, I’m hoping that ripple is caused by the Best Actor category and a win for Moura or Jordan.

So rather than pretending to possess prophetic certainty, I’m leaning fully into the spirit of the guessing game.

Here are my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards. See how many you agree with.

So, let’s play.

For each prediction that I guess correctly, I’ll give myself 2 points.
If my “maybe” choice wins, I’ll claim 1 point.

How many will you get?

⭐ = my prediction for the winner
🥰 = a possible spoiler
🏆 = the actual winner (noted and tallied on the 16th)

Best Picture 

Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
🥰 Hamnet
Marty Supreme
⭐ One Battle After Another ⭐
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams

Best Actor 

Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
⭐ Michael B. Jordan – Sinners ⭐
🥰 Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent

Best Actress 

⭐ Jessie Buckley – Hamnet ⭐
🥰 Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
Emma Stone – Bugonia

Best Supporting Actor 

Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo – Sinners
⭐ Sean Penn – One Battle After Another ⭐
🥰 Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress 

Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
⭐ Amy Madigan – Weapons ⭐
🥰 Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Best Director 

🥰 Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
⭐ Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another ⭐
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler – Sinners

Best Original Screenplay 

Blue Moon
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
🥰 Sentimental Value
⭐ Sinners ⭐

Best Adapted Screenplay 

Bugonia
Frankenstein
🥰 Hamnet
⭐ One Battle After Another ⭐
Train Dreams

Best Animated Feature Film 

Arco
Elio
⭐ KPop Demon Hunters ⭐
🥰 Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2

Best International Feature Film 

🥰 The Secret Agent – Brazil
It Was Just an Accident – France
⭐ Sentimental Value – Norway ⭐
Sirât – Spain
The Voice of Hind Rajab – Tunisia

Best Casting 

🥰 Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
⭐ Sinners ⭐

Best Cinematography 

Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
⭐ One Battle After Another ⭐
Sinners
🥰 Train Dreams

Best Production Design 

⭐ Frankenstein ⭐
🥰 Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners

Best Editing 

F1
Marty Supreme
⭐ One Battle After Another ⭐
Sentimental Value
🥰 Sinners

Best Original Score 

Bugonia
Frankenstein
🥰 Hamnet
One Battle After Another
⭐ Sinners ⭐

Best Original Song 

“Dear Me” – Diane Warren: Relentless
⭐ “Golden” – KPop Demon Hunters ⭐
🥰 “I Lied to You” – Sinners
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” – Viva Verdi!
“Train Dreams” – Train Dreams

Best Sound 

⭐ F1 ⭐
🥰 Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirât

Best Visual Effects 

⭐ Avatar: Fire and Ash ⭐
F1
Jurassic World Rebirth
The Lost Bus
🥰 Sinners

Best Makeup and Hairstyling 

⭐ Frankenstein ⭐
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
🥰 The Ugly Stepsister

Best Costume Design 

Avatar: Fire and Ash
⭐ Frankenstein ⭐
🥰 Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners

Best Animated Short Film 

Butterfly
Forevergreen
⭐ The Girl Who Cried Pearls ⭐
Retirement Plan
🥰 The Three Sisters

Best Live-Action Short Film 

Butcher’s Stain
⭐ A Friend of Dorothy ⭐
Jane Austen’s Period Drama
🥰 The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva

Best Documentary Feature Film 

The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
⭐ Cutting Through Rocks ⭐
🥰 Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor

Best Documentary Short 

⭐ All the Empty Rooms ⭐
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”
The Devil Is Busy
🥰 Perfectly a Strangeness