Oscar Predictions 2018: Who Will Win?

by Ross

In a flurry of winter activity, I’ve been trying to see at least a majority of these films, and with the help of Streaming devices, I’m getting there. Of the Best Picture nominees, I have one left to see. And hopefully by Sunday I will cut that list down to zero. Fingers crossed. The NYFF has always been a great help getting the ball rolling, but this year the majority were seen elsewhere. So, to the best of my abilities, I’ve made my choices, who I think will win, and who I loved, who I’ve loved the most and would have voted for if I could.

Let me know where we differ in opinion and who you loved and wish would win.

❤️ the one I love (can be more than one)

❤️❤️ the one I loved about the others

👉 the one I think will win

❌ the one I hope doesn’t win

✅ the one that did win (stay tuned)

Let the games begin!

Here is the list of 2018 Oscar nominations:

Best Picture:

My heart belongs to “Call Me…“, but I also loved all of the films that I saw. I don’t think any of these films are even close to perfection, nor do any of them stand out as the front runner in my critical eye. A few are brilliant and personal, creative and inventive, like “Phantom Thread“, “Darkest Hour“, and “Lady Bird“, but I felt there were some fundamental flaws in each. “I, Tonya” maybe be the best overall film of the year in my eyes, solid and perfectly formed, but it’s sadly missing from the list. So, I’d put my money on “Three Billboards…” slightly over “The Shape of Water” just by a hair, although I might be proved wrong. The surprise winner might be the sneakily powerful “Get Out“, but I think that’s wishful thinking.

❤️❤️“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
❤️“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
✅❤️“The Shape of Water”
👉❤️“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Lead Actor:

Once again, “Call Me…” especially because of Chalamet (who was also brilliant in “Lady Bird“, and surprisingly different in “Hostiles“) has taken my heart completely in his vulnerable and emotionally rich journey from curiosity to being enveloped whole-heartedly in his first love. It connected to me in a way the others just didn’t come close, but I’m guessing that’s a personal thing, rather than the universality of its story. Just saw “Darkest Hour” and I’d say the odds are on him to win, and he’s pretty darn good, as is Daniel Day-Lewis in “Phantom Thread“, but my money is on Oldman. I’m not a fan of Washington, he “makes too many faces“, as Sally Bowles might say and I never fully believe in his character being a separate entity, but I think I’m in the minority there.

❤️Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
✅👉Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
❌Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Lead Actress:

Every single one of these ladies enriched the film they were in, heightening our emotional investment in their journey in the most beautiful and subtle way. I loved Robbie in “I, Tonya” as much as I loved this film, but I’d be surprised if her portrayal of bad girl Harding will win her this award. So my money is on McDormand, who anchors this slightly messy tale in an emotionally painful landscape that shifts and bends in the most human way possible. That look on her face when Woody has that bloody cough and it flips a switch inside her, is in its self, worthy of an award. So let’s all sit back and wait for what ever kind of speech is a-coming, cause ya know she’ll deliver.

❤️Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
✅👉❤️Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
❤️❤️Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Supporting Actor:

I never saw “All the Money…” but I’m guessing this nomination is more a nod to Plummer’s professionalism and his stature in the industry, so it’s really a battle between the other four, all who are worthy. I’d love it to go to Dafoe, who centered “The Florida Project” with a caring regal core, but my money is on Rockwell, a magnificent actor (see “The Way Way Back“) playing a complex part that sits awkwardly in our minds, in a way that I wasn’t quite sure what to believe in at the end of “Three Billboards…” but I loved his portrayal of this complicated soul, although I’m not sure what I think of the writing of it.

❤️❤️Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
❤️Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
❤️Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
✅👉Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Supporting Actress:

It’s the battle between the mothers with a few BFF’s along side. I know technically Manville is a sister, but the bond felt more like companions and guardians then a familial one.

But the contest is for “Best Mom”, and I keep going back and forth. Blige was awesome in “Mudbound” but I think it’s really a two person race between Metcalf and Janney. I’m guessing Janney will gather up the prize for “I, Tonya“, but if you ask me tomorrow I might have changed my mind.

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
✅👉❤️❤️Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
❤️Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Director:

Wouldn’t it be great if first time director, Gerwig could win over these other seasoned pros, but I’m guessing del Toro will for “The Shape of Water“. And he deserves it. His film is a perfect example of a director’s vision being executed precisely and perfectly.

“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
❤️❤️“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
✅❤️“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

Animated Feature:

I have’t seen one, so this is a pure guess.

“The Boss Baby,” Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
“The Breadwinner,” Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
✅👉“Coco,” Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson
“Ferdinand,” Carlos Saldanha
“Loving Vincent,” Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman

Animated Short:

✅👉“Dear Basketball,” Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant
“Garden Party,” Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon
“Lou,” Dave Mullins, Dana Murray
“Negative Space,” Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata
“Revolting Rhymes,” Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer

Adapted Screenplay:

You all know which one I love, or you should if you’ve been reading this blog.

✅👉❤️❤️“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
❤️“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

Original Screenplay:

I’d love it if “The Big Sick” could win, but I’m guessing it won’t.

❤️“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
✅👉“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
❤️❤️“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

Cinematography:

Never saw “Blade Runner 2049” but from the hype, I’m guessing it will triumph over the majestic panoramas of “Dunkirk” and “Mudbound“.

✅👉“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
❤️“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
❤️❤️“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen

Best Documentary Feature:

Best Documentary Short Subject:

👉“Edith+Eddie,” Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright
✅“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” Frank Stiefel
“Heroin(e),” Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon
“Knife Skills,” Thomas Lennon
“Traffic Stop,” Kate Davis, David Heilbroner

Best Live Action Short Film:

👉“DeKalb Elementary,” Reed Van Dyk
“The Eleven O’Clock,” Derin Seale, Josh Lawson
“My Nephew Emmett,” Kevin Wilson, Jr.
✅“The Silent Child,” Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton
“Watu Wote/All of Us,” Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen

Best Foreign Language Film:

✅👉“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul (Hungary)
“The Square” (Sweden)

Film Editing:

“Baby Driver,” Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss

✅👉❤️“Dunkirk,” Lee Smith
❤️❤️“I, Tonya,” Tatiana S. Riegel
❤️“The Shape of Water,” Sidney Wolinsky
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Jon Gregory

Sound Editing:

“Baby Driver,” Julian Slater
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mark Mangini, Theo Green
✅👉“Dunkirk,” Alex Gibson, Richard King
“The Shape of Water,” Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood

Sound Mixing:

“Baby Driver,” Mary H. Ellis, Julian later, Tim Cavagin
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill
✅👉“Dunkirk,” Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo
“The Shape of Water,” Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick

Production Design:

“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer
“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
❤️“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
✅👉❤️❤️“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau

Original Score:

❤️“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood
✅👉❤️“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
❤️“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell

Original Song:

“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens
✅👉“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

Makeup and Hair:

✅👉“Darkest Hour,” Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick
“Victoria and Abdul,” Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
“Wonder,” Arjen Tuiten

Costume Design:

“Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran
“Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran
✅👉❤️“Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges
❤️“The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira
“Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle

Visual Effects: